Solutions  ·  The Consent Problem

Turning “Not in my backyard” into “Please, in my backyard.”

A community backlash that started as a handful of local zoning fights is now a national movement, and it has become the single biggest thing standing between the data-center industry and the capacity it needs to build.

This is the map of that movement: where it came from, what it’s costing, and why it exists. Every concern driving it is a concern SET Energy’s community-first model was engineered to answer.

01  /  The scope of the movement

Opposition went from fringe to mainstream in under a year.

Public sentiment on data centers didn’t drift; it broke. Two independent national pollsters now put opposition to a nearby data center at roughly seven in ten Americans, cutting across party lines, and the organized movement behind it has more than doubled in a matter of months.

71%
of Americans oppose a data center being built in their local area, more unpopular than a local nuclear plant.
Gallup, March 2026
42% → 71%
jump in opposition in just nine months (Sept 2025 – May 2026), Democrats and Trump voters alike.
Heatmap / Embold poll, 2026
833
active local opposition groups across 49 states, up from 396 roughly three months earlier.
Data Center Watch, via NBC News
14
states weighed statewide moratoriums on data-center development in the 2026 sessions.
Rockefeller Institute; Bisnow
Where the brakes are being pulled

A restriction map of the United States

Statewide moratorium / restriction bill (2026) Local moratorium, ban, or tax rollback Active opposition, no formal restriction
State tiers are a synthesis of the cited restriction trackers (Rockefeller Institute, Bisnow, Deseret News, Data Center Watch); illustrative.
Local actions
100+

cities, towns, and counties have proposed or passed data-center moratoriums; Michigan alone accounts for roughly 50.

Bisnow, 2026
Formal government actions tracked
8 → 78

restrictive actions by state and local governments in a single year (May 2025 to May 2026): a near-tenfold rise.

Deseret News, 2026
The trajectory
Public opposition to a nearby data center
42% → 71%
Sept 2025 → May 2026 · Heatmap/Embold
Active local opposition groups
396 → 833
Late 2025 → March 2026 · Data Center Watch
Projects canceled by local opposition
6 → 25 /yr
’23’24’25
2 (2023) → 6 (2024) → 25 (2025) · Heatmap News
Where it came from

The origin of the “No.”

Today’s national movement grew out of a single Virginia land-use fight. Understanding that arc is how you get ahead of it.

2014
The seed: Prince William County, VA.

Residents organize against a transmission line partly serving an Amazon data center. Local, contained, easy to miss.

2021–23
The flashpoint: the “Digital Gateway.”

A ~2,100-acre, multi-billion-dollar rezoning becomes a national symbol. Land deals and stock-sale scandals turn a zoning case into a trust crisis.

Aug 2025
The proof it can be stopped.

A judge voids the Digital Gateway rezoning over public-notice violations, showing even the largest projects are beatable and handing every local group a playbook.

2025–26
The national scale-up.

Opposition groups multiply into the hundreds; statewide moratorium bills appear in 14 states; 300+ data-center bills are filed in the first six weeks of the 2026 sessions alone.

02  /  The cost of “No”

Every stalled project is locked capacity, and locked capital.

The backlash isn’t just noise; it is measurably slowing the build-out. Projects are being withdrawn, rejected, and moratoriumed off the board, taking gigawatts of planned compute and tens of billions in investment with them. This is precisely the value SET Energy’s model is built to unlock.

$130B
in data-center projects blocked or delayed in a single quarter (Q1 2026), roughly matching all of 2025.
Data Center Watch (Forbes)
4.7 GW
of planned electricity demand erased by the 25 projects canceled in 2025 alone.
Heatmap News
~40%
of projects that hit sustained local opposition are eventually canceled outright.
Heatmap News
~99
projects are actively contested right now, against a US pipeline of roughly 770 planned data centers.
Heatmap News
Single projects, stalled or contested

The billions sitting in limbo

Investment blocked, delayed, or contested, by project (Data Center Watch, May 2024–Mar 2025 tracking). Virginia dominates the list.

PW “Digital Gateway”Prince William, VA$24.7B
Tract Data HubGoodyear, AZ$14B
Culpeper AcquisitionsCulpeper, VA$12B
Amazon campusKing George, VA$6B
Province GroupChesterfield, VA$3B
Harper Road Tech ParkPeculiar, MO$1.5B
The pattern, not the exception

“Rejected 7–0.”

In Tucson, AZ, an Amazon-linked 600 MW campus (“Project Blue”) was voted down unanimously over water and secrecy concerns. In Naperville, IL, a project was rejected 6–1 even after the developer scaled back the project. In San Marcos, TX, a denial was followed by a citywide ban in every zoning district.

Data Center Dynamics; Forbes, 2026
What’s at stake if the friction isn’t solved
$6.7T
global data-center capex needed by 2030
156 GW
of AI capacity demand by 2030

A generational build-out is coming. The only open question is whether communities fight it or welcome it, and that is a design choice.

McKinsey, 2025
Case study · Calvert County, Maryland

A textbook standoff, and exactly the one SET’s model is built to prevent.

In Calvert County, large grid-dependent campus proposals collided with an organized community: residents gathered 1,300+ signatures petitioning for a moratorium, and a measure to require an independent environmental study before any approval was debated at the Board of County Commissioners in spring 2026, where the proposed moratorium was ultimately voted down 3–2. The controversy became a defining issue in the county’s 2026 primaries. Calvert’s underlying concerns – electricity prices, water, grid strain, and a transparent process – are the same ones every one of these fights turns on. They are also the exact concerns SET Energy’s distributed, self-powered, closed-loop model resolves by design, so that a community never has to choose between economic growth and its own quality of life.

03  /  From every “No” to a “Yes”

The eight concerns driving the backlash, and SET’s answer to each.

Opposition is rational. When you look at how the conventional, grid-dependent megacampus is built, the fears are earned. SET Energy’s entire model is a point-by-point response: the same concern that triggers a “no” becomes the reason a community says “yes.”

Electricity prices
+833%
The PJM capacity price that sets your bill leapt from $28.92 to $269.92/MW-day in one auction, and the grid’s own monitor attributes roughly 46% of those costs to data centers. Households in the region face an estimated ~$70/month more by 2028.
S&P Global; PJM Independent Market Monitor; E&E News (NRDC est.); White House Ratepayer Pledge; National Taxpayers Union
SET’s answer
Each campus either runs behind the meter as its own microgrid, or delivers an equal amount of new generation to the local grid, earmarked for the campus through power-purchase agreements. Either way it brings its own supply rather than bidding against households for grid power, so it cannot drive up neighbors’ bills.
Grid strain & reliability
~12% of US power
Data centers are projected to reach up to ~12% of US electricity by 2028, and grid regulator NERC now forecasts peak demand rising 24% in ten years, with new data centers the primary driver.
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; NERC 2025
SET’s answer
Self-powered campuses built to island during grid events don’t just avoid straining the local system; they can stabilize it. On-site battery storage (BESS) smooths demand peaks and valleys to improve grid efficiency, adding resilience and voltage support that residents feel during outages.
Water consumption
Up to 5M gal/day
A large evaporative-cooled data center can consume up to ~5 million gallons a day. In The Dalles, OR, Google’s facilities reached ~29% of the entire city’s water, a figure the city fought in court to keep secret.
EESI; Data Center Dynamics
SET’s answer
Closed-loop immersion cooling, not evaporative, cuts water use by over 80%, with no aquifer draw and no discharge to local waterways. Optional on-site SMRs use the same closed-loop principle, pushing reductions past 90%.
Air pollution
~$20B / year
A study puts the US public-health cost of data-center air pollution near $20 billion a year. In the Memphis area, an AI campus drew a federal Clean Air Act suit over dozens of largely unpermitted gas turbines; Northern Virginia hosts 11+ GW of diesel backup.
Caltech / UC Riverside; SELC & NAACP; Virginia Mercury
SET’s answer
Efficient Tier 4 generation paired with carbon-capture (CCUS), solar, and battery storage instead of uncontrolled diesel fleets, with quarterly independent air-quality audits published to the community.
Land use & rural character
2,100 acres
Conventional campuses run 200–500 acres and up; Virginia’s flagship fight was over a single 2,100-acre, 23-million-square-foot rezoning. Scale, noise, and lost rural character are what turn neighbors into opponents.
Datacenters.com; Data Center Frontier
SET’s answer
Smaller, distributed footprints sited in existing industrial zones, with landscaped setbacks and noise controls, rather than one megacampus stamped onto rural or residential land.
Few permanent jobs
~$1.95M / job
A typical data center employs only about 50 permanent workers, and states have paid an average of $1.95 million in tax breaks per job. Residents rightly ask what a “lights-out” facility gives back.
Good Jobs First; JLARC (VA); RealClearMarkets; Tax Foundation
SET’s answer
A distributed model is designed to spread construction and operations roles across the county and pair them with local STEM and community-college pipelines, keeping the benefit local rather than concentrating it on one parcel.
Secrecy & NDAs
~80%
Of Virginia localities with data centers, roughly 80% signed non-disclosure agreements, binding officials to secrecy, sometimes with code names and shell companies, before residents ever got a vote. Backroom process, more than any single project, is what ignites the anger.
NBC News; Public Citizen
SET’s answer
Transparency is the product, not an afterthought: a community advisory group, a public-facing performance dashboard on jobs, taxes, and environmental metrics, and public presentations, because SET’s role is the civic interface.
Stranded-asset / bubble risk
$1.5T gap
Analysts flag a ~$1.5 trillion financing gap between planned AI-infrastructure spend and the outside capital needed to fund it, and one hyperscaler has already walked away from ~2 GW of leased capacity. Communities fear being left with an empty shell.
Morgan Stanley; Bisnow / TD Cowen
SET’s answer
Modular, 10 MW-incremental deployment means capacity is added only as demand is real, and compute refreshes without abandoning the site, phasing capital and shrinking the county’s stranded-asset exposure.
04  /  The PIMBY model

Infrastructure a community asks for, because the friction was engineered out.

Put the answers together and they stop being eight separate rebuttals and become one coherent model. This is what “community-first” means in practice: the design that resolves the objection is the same design that makes the project faster to approve, cheaper to finance, and durable for decades.

01 · POWER

Bring your own power

On-site hybrid generation and storage as a microgrid, so the campus adds capacity and resilience instead of competing with residents for a strained grid.

02 · FOOTPRINT

Distributed, not dominant

Smaller campuses in existing industrial corridors: closed-loop cooled, low-water, low-noise. They preserve rural character and spread jobs across the county.

03 · TRUST

Transparent by design

Community advisory groups, public performance dashboards, and independent audits from day one, turning the process itself from a liability into a reason to say yes.

The next generation of digital infrastructure will be built where it’s welcome.

If you’re a community leader, utility, or hyperscaler tired of watching capacity die in a zoning hearing, let’s talk about building it the way that gets a yes.

Start a conversation Partner with us
Thomas A. Peter, Founder & CEO  ·  tom.peter@setenergy.net  ·  Ashburn, VA

Sources & notes

  1. Gallup, “Americans Oppose Data Centers in Their Area” (Mar 2026) – news.gallup.com
  2. Heatmap / Embold public-opinion poll (May 2026) – heatmap.news
  3. Data Center Watch, opposition-group counts & blocked/delayed value (via NBC News, Forbes, Fortune) – datacenterwatch.org, nbcnews.com, forbes.com
  4. Rockefeller Institute of Government, state moratorium tracking (2026) – rockinst.org
  5. Bisnow, “14 States, Dozens of Localities Consider Bans” (Jun 2026) – bisnow.com
  6. Deseret News, data-center moratorium/ban tracking (formal government actions, 8→78) – deseret.com
  7. MultiState, 2026 data-center legislation guide – multistate.us
  8. Right-of-center & neutral corroboration on pushback & siting: Washington Examiner, states/cities pushing back (300+ bills across 30 states, 14 states with ban bills; per-facility water use, IEA) – washingtonexaminer.com; Brookings, data-center backlash – brookings.edu; NCSL, 2026 data-center legislation – ncsl.org
  9. Heatmap News, project cancellations & GW erased (2025) – heatmap.news
  10. Data Center Dynamics, Tucson “Project Blue” rejection – datacenterdynamics.com
  11. McKinsey, “The cost of compute” (2025) – mckinsey.com
  12. S&P Global & PJM Independent Market Monitor, capacity-auction prices & data-center cost share – spglobal.com, utilitydive.com
  13. E&E News, PJM ratepayer bill-impact estimates (NRDC analysis) – eenews.net
  14. Right-of-center & neutral corroboration on ratepayer impact: White House “Ratepayer Protection Pledge” – whitehouse.gov; National Taxpayers Union, “Speed to Power” – ntu.org
  15. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, US Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024) – eta-publications.lbl.gov
  16. NERC 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (via Utility Dive) – utilitydive.com
  17. EESI, data centers & water consumption – eesi.org; Data Center Dynamics, The Dalles water disclosure – datacenterdynamics.com
  18. Caltech / UC Riverside, air-pollution public-health cost study – caltech.edu
  19. SELC & NAACP, xAI Memphis turbines / Clean Air Act suit – selc.org; Virginia Mercury, NoVA diesel backup – virginiamercury.com
  20. Virginia JLARC, data-center employment & impact report (Dec 2024) – jlarc.virginia.gov; Good Jobs First, subsidy-per-job – goodjobsfirst.org
  21. Right-of-center corroboration on few jobs & subsidies: RealClearMarkets, “Very Few Jobs Is the Whole Point of Data Centers” – realclearmarkets.com; Tax Foundation, state taxation of data centers – taxfoundation.org
  22. NBC News, data-center NDAs – nbcnews.com; Public Citizen, NDA report – citizen.org
  23. Morgan Stanley, data-center financing gap – morganstanley.com; Bisnow / TD Cowen, Microsoft ~2 GW pullback – bisnow.com
  24. Datacenters.com, hyperscale land footprints – datacenters.com; Data Center Frontier, PW Digital Gateway (2,100 acres / 23M sq ft) – datacenterfrontier.com
  25. Calvert County coverage: TheBayNet, moratorium vote – thebaynet.com; Maryland Matters, 2026 primary – marylandmatters.org

A note on figures: aggregate blocked/delayed-investment totals (e.g. $130B) are tracked by Data Center Watch and cited by outlets including Forbes and NBC News; “blocked or delayed” includes projects that may still proceed. Forward figures for 2027–2030 (US power share, household bill impacts, capex, capacity) are projections and cited as such. SET Energy’s solution descriptions reflect its proposed development model and design intent. Statistics current as of July 2026.